A million infected globally, and Premier says it may not peak here until September
Queensland is set to record more than 1,000 cases of COVID-19 within days but there are signs the virus spread may be slowing.
After another 39 Queensland cases were confirmed overnight, bringing the state total to 873, Palaszczuk said social distancing and travel restrictions needed to keep working in order to limit the scale of the outbreak.
While there has been constant modelling of the potential number of cases in Queensland, Palaszczuk repeatedly declined to give any figures, saying she was “planning for the worst and praying for the best”. More than 53,000 people have been tested, thousands placed into home quarantine and entire communities isolated.
The Premier said 90 per cent of people needed to follow the advice on social distancing to “flatten the curve” of infection and reduce the number of cases and deaths. She again warned that restrictions would be in place for at least six months, to protect the most vulnerable members of the community and help the health system cope with the inevitable influx in patients.
“We’re not even on the curve yet, so that gives you an indication,” Palaszczuk told ABC Radio’s Rebecca Levingston this morning.
“The evidence is telling me we’re around two or three weeks behind NSW and the peak could be in July, August, September.”
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Palaszczuk said social distancing would hopefully also reduce the risk of a flu outbreak at the same time over winter.
Early health planning documents foreshadowed the worst-case scenario in Queensland of around 10,000 COVID-19 patients needing hospital treatment at the same time (independent modelling suggests that might now be the national total). In preparation, the system – at both state and local level – has surge plans for a mild response (up to six per cent of all admitted patients have COVID-19), moderate response (up to 14 per cent), and high response (up to 36 per cent) with the support of private hospitals and medi-hotels.
The national Cabinet is meeting again today in hope Australia can do better than other countries. The virus has killed more than 51,000 globally with the largest number of deaths in Italy, followed by Spain and the US.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison today said Australia’s tally of 5,274 cases would have been double that had the initial infection rate been allowed to continue. He promised to release more modelling in future, and also detail progress of strategies and reveal goals so that Australians have the confidence to continue social distancing notwithstanding the economic costs.
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In the latest rule changes, churches will be considered a workplace in order for priests to have staff support to livestream Easter services to parishioners staying home. As for the financial support on offer, commercial landlords and tenants have been asked to do further work on a code of practice applying to businesses forced to close but hoping to one day reopen.
“Australians are making big sacrifices, they want to know what they’re achieving,” Morrison said.
Globally, the first 100,000 cases were reported in around 55 days and the first 500,000 in 76 days. Cases doubled to one million within the past eight days. Australia’s Chief Medical Officer, Professor Brendan Murphy, suggested the true tally might be five or 10 times higher.
Total cases reported by Thursday grew 10 per cent from a day earlier, the first time the rate has hit double digits since the virus took hold outside China.
There are 117 countries and territories that have reported above 100 cases, 50 with outbreaks of more than 1000 and seven that have reported 50,000 or more COVID-19 cases, mainly in Europe.
The global fatality rate is now above five per cent of all reported cases, with countries including the UK, the US and Spain reporting a spike in fatalities over recent days.
Around 22 per cent of total cases have been reported by the US, while Italy and Spain have each reported 11 per cent of global cases.
China, where the virus emerged in December, has reported eight per cent of total cases globally as the epicenter of the pandemic moved to Europe and the US.
Europe together accounts for more than half of cases and more than 70 per cent of deaths linked to the virus, as countries in southern Europe with higher older age demographics have been hit particularly hard.
– With AAP
