Businesses more likely to go broke in areas where customers are younger

Trade payment defaults, court actions and credit inquiries were all trending sharply upwards as Australian businesses grappled with rising interest rates, high inflation and decreasing demand, according to the Creditorwatch index.

 

Jun 21, 2023, updated May 22, 2025
Business are more likely to fail in areas of younger population, a study shows (Photo: AAP: Lukas Coch)
Business are more likely to fail in areas of younger population, a study shows (Photo: AAP: Lukas Coch)

The index results were consistent with other economic indicators such as the NAB Business Confidence Index, which also showed an accelerating decline in trading conditions.

But the research also revealed that the best performing regions in Australia, in terms of probability of business insolvency, were areas that had an older median age of residents.

“People with little to no debt remain mostly unaffected by the RBA’s monetary policy tightening,” Creditorwatch said.

“In contrast, the worst performing locations have a lower median age and people in these areas are more likely to be in the earlier stages of their debt ‘journey’. Interest rate rises will be weighing heavily on these business owners.”

Creditorwatch chief economist, Anneke Thompson’s view is that the Reserve Bank was unlikely to consider lowering interest rates until at least mid-2024, given core inflation remained stubbornly high.

The index showed that external administrations dipped from March to April due to seasonality but were now up 35 per cent on last year.

Court actions also dropped in March due to seasonality, but were now up 50 per cent year-on-year.

Credit enquiries had increased 85 per cent year-on-year as businesses become more nervous about the health of their trading partners and tightened credit policies.

Business to busines trade payment defaults were 31 per cent year-on-year with Food and Beverage services the number one ranked industry for probability of default by a considerable margin.

It also showed that the rate of external administrations in the construction industry continued to trend upwards – sitting at their highest point since June 2020 while the rate of external administrations in the Healthcare and Social Assistance sector, while still low, had more than doubled over the past 12 months.

CreditorWatch chief executive Patrick Coghlan said pressures were mounting on businesses across almost all industries.

“Our Business Risk Index data is showing a clear upward trend in the rate of external administrations across almost all sectors, with mining being one of the few exceptions,” he said.

“With economic conditions forecast to decline further, we encourage all businesses to perform proper due diligence on their trading partners and monitor them on an ongoing basis to ensure they don’t become an unfortunate statistic.”

Among the best regions nationally were Townsville and Cairns while Southport and Surfers Paradise were among the worst.

Probability of default by industry

The industries with the highest probability of default over the next 12 months are:

  1. Food and Beverage Services: 7.10%
  2. Arts and Recreation Services: 4.59%
  3. Transport, Postal and Warehousing: 4.59%

The industries with the lowest probability of default over the next 12 months are:

  1. Health Care and Social Assistance: 3.25%
  2. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing: 3.51%
  3. Wholesale Trade: 3.56%

Source: CreditorWatch risk score credit rating average probability of default by industry. Default defined as external administration, strike-off or deregistration in the next 12 months

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