Three questions could determine the future of Queensland politics (especially the Premier)
Is May 2024 Annastacia Palaszczuk’s real date with destiny? Dennis Atkins thinks it might be
Three questions dominate Queensland politics right now. The first is obvious: which party will win the next election, to be held on the last Saturday of October next year.
The LNP is the clear favourite and, while Annastacia Palaszczuk should never be counted out of a contest, Labor is doing little to turn that momentum around.
There’s an elephant in the room and this caveat has to be acknowledged – there are 14 and a half months to polling day and events can turn political outcomes faster than a stolen car doing burnouts.
The other questions are maybe not so obvious and not so much talked about – just yet. The most significant is this: will Palaszczuk step down before the election? The consequential question is, if she does, who will replace her?
If you run out of conversation about Wednesday’s women’s football World Cup semi final, these topics might help. It’s unlikely you’ll find anyone wanting to talk about the Voice referendum.
On the face of it, Palaszczuk is definite about her future. Asked if she would be Labor leader come the 2024 election earlier this year, the Premier couldn’t have been more empathic.
“I’ve already said, absolutely, yes,” she said, on a mid-April day in Central Queensland, after a newspaper published a poll (https://bit.ly/45sQfzk) showing the Labor/LNP contest was 51/49 against the incumbent and the ALP was six points behind on primary vote support. Palaszczuk’s personal standing had, according to this YouGov poll, collapsed by seven points to less than 31 percent.
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These numbers were replicated in a Freshwater Strategies polling survey (https://bit.ly/3sbztqn) published in The Australian Financial Review mid-year.
The AFR poll showed less than one in three voters had confidence in the Palaszczuk Government to handle economic management, cost of living, housing, tax and spending, and, at the bottom of the list, crime and social order.
To drive home the parlous state of Labor just now, the government could only manage to draw even with the LNP on handling the environment – both rated at 27 percent support – indicating the ALP had squandered what has been a traditional strength in Queensland.
This was a brutal poll which the Premier and government insiders brushed off by saying Freshwater was an LNP front. Instead of being dismissed, this poll should have been treated seriously and used as an opportunity and an impetus to find clearly needed responses and implement them.
Some Labor insiders say they are in the “the winter of our discontent” which they say is continuing, despite the Southern Hemisphere version of an Indian summer we’re enjoying currently.
But the numbers aren’t good and sometime between now and next May Palaszczuk will have a hard think about her future. That month matters because it’s when she will pass Peter Beattie’s time in the Premier’s office, making her the longest serving Labor politician in the top job since the Second World War.
Palaszczuk wants this achievement for personal satisfaction, an acknowledgement of her abilities and as a reply to the way she’s been treated by Beattie at various times since she became ALP leader in 2012.
Palaszczuk is not giving too much away but she’s regarded as being “very pragmatic” and would put the party first if that was in the interests of the government’s re-election.
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“One thing you can be sure of is this: if she thinks she can win, she won’t be going anywhere,” said one Labor insider who watches Palaszczuk closely.
In this game of fantasy government, let’s assume things haven’t improved politically by Easter next year, the economy is still flat with persistent cost of living pressures, there is a negative “wrong track” reading for the state’s direction and the Premier’s standing remains in the low 30s.
This could see Palaszczuk get up one day, decide it’s time and announce her retirement. She might set a date in the near future to allow time for a succession process or it might be presented as a done deal, with Queensland’s next premier introduced as the incumbent bids farewell.
The most likely successor is Deputy Premier Steven Miles, who is also State Development, Infrastructure, Local Government and Planning Minister – it’s a grab bag of responsibilities that should not just mean a high, positive profile but also offer daily opportunities for good news announcements.
Miles is a member of the ALP’s dominant Left faction and a favourite of power broker Gary Bullock, boss of the United Workers Union. If Bullock demands Miles gets the job, he’ll get it.
Others who might be in the running in a fair fight are Treasurer and Right faction leader Cameron Dick and Health Minister Shannon Fentiman (another Left winger).
The Freshwater Strategies poll had ratings for these possible Labor leaders – measured against Palaszczuk who had 39 percent support. Miles came out as the second most popular with 15 percent support, Dick was two points behind at 13 percent and Fentiman had 10 percent popular backing.
At first glance these results might suggest the alternatives to Palaszczuk haven’t got much to work with, especially in the case of Miles and Dick who are known quantities in Queensland politics having been high profile operators throughout Labor’s time in power.
However, Fentiman should take some heart from her numbers given her limited role as a senior minister (Attorney-General and Health) since 2020. It’s clear she is capable of being noticed and liked.
There are some hints people in the government are thinking about all this, too. Miles has smartened up his media performances which used to lack gravitas.
Another sign was a social media post (https://bit.ly/3sbztqn) of Miles with his spouse Kim at the Moreton Bay food and wine festival early this month.
Close Miles watchers cannot recall him posting something featuring a photo of him with his wife. It was noticed widely.
It’s all fantasy government, of course, and might come to nothing. However, the powerful sentiments stalking this government is the one marked “It’s Time”.
The Hawke/Keating governments fell to it in 1995 after 12 years, John Howard was chased down following another 12 and the LNP ran out the clock after nine years.
In politics, when time’s up, time’s up and you can’t do much about it.
