Jump at the pump: Chalmers warns that Middle East conflict will push prices higher

Australian motorists face higher prices at the pump as the treasurer warns escalating conflict in the Middle East may keep oil prices elevated.

Oct 10, 2024, updated May 22, 2025
Treasurer Jim Chalmers. (AAP Image/Mick Tsikas)
Treasurer Jim Chalmers. (AAP Image/Mick Tsikas)

“We’re focused on the human costs, but there are economic costs as well,” Jim Chalmers told reporters in Canberra on Thursday.

After easing over the past year, Brent crude oil price had spiked and was trading at about $77 a barrel, roughly seven per cent higher than a week and a half ago.

Treasury’s rough rule of thumb implies every 10 per cent increase in the oil price sustained over the course of a year shaves 0.1 per cent off Australia’s gross domestic product and adds about 0.4 percentage points to inflation.

“If those kinds of spikes are sustained, or indeed, of course, if they get worse, you can see the very direct impact that has on economies like ours,” Dr Chalmers explained.

“Further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East does risk more economic uncertainty.”

Yet other developments in the global economy, including a higher iron ore price stemming from economic policy moves in China, may support a federal budget forecasted to sink back into deficit this financial year.

The treasurer issued a warning to fuel retailers to ensure prices at the bowser accurately reflected global oil prices.

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“We don’t want to see the service stations take Australian motorists for mugs,” he said.

Petrol prices have been much lower after holding at elevated levels over the past few years.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission monitors fuel and chair Gina Cass-Gottlieb said there was typically a correlation between prices paid by motorists and global oil prices, with some lag.

“But the monitoring does allow very clear scrutiny and an absolute shining of the light for consumers,” Ms Cass-Gottlieb said on Thursday.

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