Liberals reclaim seat of Goldstein from teal
Fresh hope has emerged for a shattered Liberal Party after its electoral wipeout, with Coalition candidates taking the lead in crucial contests with teal independents.
Despite losing a swathe of seats to Labor, the ABC has called the win for the Liberals in Goldstein in Melbourne where Tim Wilson has overtaken teal Zoe Daniel by 684 votes.
Wilson took the lead late Tuesday with a strong trend in his favour on postal votes, meaning he could oust Daniel after her first term and win back his former seat.
The ABC’s election count said there was nothing to suggest the trend in favour of Wilson would reverse with the 5,000 postals yet to be processed on Wednesday.
Absent votes favoured former journalist Daniel in 2022, but there won’t be enough to overcome the continuing trend back to the Liberals, said the ABC.
Daniel claimed a premature victory on Saturday night, but postal votes and pre-poll ballots have made the contest come down to the wire.
However, Daniel has said she would not concede until the outcome was certain.
Confidence is growing that the Liberals could also hold on to Bradfield in Sydney.
Liberal Gisele Kapterian has edged ahead by 54 votes in the seat of Bradfield against independent challenger Nicolette Boele.
The two seat counts have restored some optimism in Liberal ranks after the party plunged to its lowest primary vote since its formation in the 1940s.
Another teal in trouble is Dr Monique Ryan, in Melbourne’s Kooyong, whose lead has narrowed even further.
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Liberal challenger Amelia Hamer is behind by only 1002 votes on Wednesday.
Greens leader Adam Bandt remains in danger of losing his seat of Melbourne to Labor’s Sarah Witty, but says he is confident of holding on.
Labor is set to claim at least 86 seats to the Coalition’s 39, with 15 electorates still too close to call as of Tuesday afternoon.
‘Issue with women’
As the federal Liberals count the cost of a heavy election defeat, senior figures within the party are angry at the lack of progress in gender representation.
Experts warn the Liberals risk moving into permanent opposition unless they can fix their issue with women.
A heavy election defeat has reduced the Coalition to around 40 lower house seats with a number of electorates still too close to call.
The ABC forecasts women will win at least 63 seats, with 46 to be held by Labor and only four by the Liberals.
Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian has taken the lead over independent Nicolette Boele in the Sydney seat of Bradfield, and Amelia Hamer’s fight to wrest Kooyong from independent MP Monique Ryan has gone down to the wire.
The gender disparity between the major parties is cause for alarm within the Coalition, with party sources criticising the lack of women’s policies taken to the election.
The party had a structural problem with women that would intensify if it did not stop the trend, University of Sydney political scientist Peter Chen said.
“Without quotas they’re not going to get anywhere near gender parity,” he said.
“There are a lot of structural disincentives in the system that discourage women from engaging in public life and targets do not work.
“They’re moving themselves into a permanent opposition.”
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Retiring senator Linda Reynolds is among senior Liberals urging the party to learn from previous reviews.
A postmortem of the 2022 election defeat found the party was failing to adequately represent the values and priorities of women.
It also identified a lack of confidence that women within the party would be encouraged to hold or run for leadership positions.
Chen said the main test for whether the party could get on top of the issue would be the leadership contest and how many women were selected for the shadow ministry.
Sussan Ley, Angus Taylor and Dan Tehan have emerged as the main contenders to replace Peter Dutton as Liberal leader.
“They have invested so much ideological heft into running (anti-diversity) narratives, how can they then turn around to do that within their own organisation,” he said.
As they look to set out their second-term agenda, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong are splitting their attention between global and local issues.
President Donald Trump on Monday flagged a 100 per cent tariff on films made outside the US, before saying he would consult with the American film industry.
“Australia and America, we’ve worked so closely on so many great movies and so our movie and entertainment industries are really very interlinked and very collaborative,” Wong said on Tuesday.
“So what we would say to the Trump administration is it’s a great thing that we’re collaborating on doing, so let’s keep working together because that’s what viewers want to see.”
NSW Premier Chris Minns went further, saying it was “a terrible, terrible decision” as he called for film industry support, adding it will be difficult if studios start to shut.
The decision by the Coalition to ramp up culture wars during the election “was a demonstration of why the Liberal Party had done so badly in Australia, cities and suburbs”, Wong said.
“Overwhelmingly, Australians who live in cities and suburbs looked at the Liberal Party and said, ‘you don’t represent my aspirations, you don’t reflect the things I’m worried about’.”
Wong pledged to serve the full term in the new government, adding: “I’m looking forward to being part of a third-term Labor government as well”.
Albanese is mulling a refreshed cabinet with factional leaders to meet in coming days to present their picks.
But the leadership team of Treasurer Jim Chalmers, Finance Minister Katy Gallagher, Defence Minister Richard Marles and Trade Minister Don Farrell will remain.
Wong, who doubles as the government’s Senate leader, issued a warning to the Greens to heed the results of the election after the minor party pledged to use its balance of power to force more progressive reforms.
“Australians rejected the politics of conflict and the politics of grievance and unfortunately, Adam Bandt in some ways is quite like Peter Dutton,” she said.
The Liberal leadership contest is coming down to three contenders after Peter Dutton became the first opposition leader to lose his seat, with shadow treasurer Angus Taylor and deputy leader Sussan Ley the main frontrunners.
