The Stats Guy: Why high house prices might drive down divorces
A recent study found that in areas with higher housing costs, couples are less likely to separate. Not because they’re happier but because breaking up has simply become unaffordable.
We talk a lot about how Australia’s soaring property prices are locking young people out of homeownership.
But research suggests they’re also locking people into relationships.
A recent study published in The Conversation caught my eye. It found that in areas with higher housing costs, couples are less likely to separate. Not because they’re happier but because breaking up has simply become unaffordable.
Think about it – splitting a household means paying for two sets of rent or mortgages, two fridges, and two internet accounts.
For couples struggling financially, unaffordable housing might keep them together. Is staying together not for love, but for financial reasons desirable?
Before the introduction of no-fault divorce in Australia in 1975, ending a marriage was a legally and socially arduous process.
Couples had to prove wrongdoing and had to show in court that there had been adultery, cruelty or desertion. This made divorce not only emotionally taxing but also a source of stigma.
Divorces were relatively rare and many Australians would have gone their whole lives without personally knowing anyone who had been through one. Marriage was seen as lifelong, and escaping an unhappy union was, for many, nearly impossible.
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Today we’ve become used to openly discussing divorces with little stigma. Divorce has even become a common comedic punchline. Monty Python’s John Cleese, with three divorces under his belt, famously quipped in a TV interview how sad he was when he heard his ex-wife had died – because it was the wrong one.
With the stigma of divorce gone, why do we see fewer rather than more divorces now?
Australia’s divorce rate is at its lowest level since no-fault divorce laws were introduced in 1976. In fact, just 2.1 divorces were granted per 1000 adults in 2024. That’s lower than during the recession of the 1990s, when financial strain drove a rise in marriage breakdowns.
So why are things different now?
It’s partly about who gets married in the first place. Today’s couples marry later (typically in their early 30s) and are more likely to live together beforehand. That means fewer hasty unions, and fewer quick exits.
It’s a kind of pre-selection for stable relationships. Relationships simply break apart before the knot was officially tied.
But that doesn’t explain everything. Housing costs are the elephant in the (bed)room.
Owning property, especially in stupendously expensive cities like Sydney or Melbourne, turns a relationship into an economic partnership. You’re not just sharing your life, you’re sharing your wealth. Most households rely on two incomes just to keep up with mortgage repayments.
Separating from your partner now means adding even more property related costs – like an additional rental cost on top of an existing mortgage.
Due to a lack of adequate housing options, a divorce increasingly means leaving the local neighbourhood. Especially when children are in the picture, this is an unappealing option.
Renters v owners
A divorce can deepen the divide between renters and homeowners. Two homeowners at separation at least have an asset to split.
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Renters, by contrast, may face even greater housing insecurity post-separation. The flipside of the argument is that a rental contract is faster dissolved than a home can be sold.
Either way, it’s a sobering thought that our housing affordability crisis even touches our most intimate decisions such as whether or not to remain in a relationship.
The cost of remaining single
High house prices aren’t just affecting people in relationships. They’re reshaping the decisions of those who aren’t yet coupled up.
Living by yourself is more expensive that living as a couple: You only pay for half a toaster, half a Netflix subscription, half the UberEats delivery fee. Financially speaking, partnering up is a big win.
Cultural trends like prolonged education, marrying later in life, and delaying first childbirth led to an increase of single person households. These cultural trends came just as housing costs continue to go up.
Young people did not react to this trend by partnering up with the next best person, rather shared living arrangements became more popular. Whether you split the costs for furniture and utilities with your partner or a house mate doesn’t make much of a difference.
Do house prices really shape our romantic lives?
Are we still marrying for love, or just for logistics?
Of course, many happy couples are staying together for all the right reasons. But for some, the decision is increasingly shaped by property prices, mortgage stress, and the fear of being priced out of the market.
There’s even a gendered element. Women, who tend to earn less and take on more caregiving responsibilities, may find it harder to leave financially dependent relationships.
Housing insecurity disproportionately affects those with less economic power. For now, the lower income-earner in a relationship tends to be the woman (this might change in about 30 years if current educational and earning trends continue).
What should our policymakers do?
This research holds an important message for policymakers: Housing policy isn’t just about bricks and mortar. It’s about human relationships, social wellbeing, and personal freedom.
More affordable housing options and lower housing costs in general would give people greater autonomy to make relationship choices that are right for them, not just for their bank balance.
Because when housing is unaffordable, love isn’t free. It’s tethered (at least to some degree) to the price of real estate.
If you are a regular reader of this column you’ve noticed a familiar pattern: Any social issue (from crime to foster care) has a housing angle to it.
As I discussed in a previous column, our major parties have no interest in lower house prices. Therefore, I am not expecting a reversal of these trends. Expect lower divorce rates in the coming years and decades ahead.
Simon Kuestenmacher is a co-founder of The Demographics Group. His columns, media commentary and public speaking focus on current socio-demographic trends and how these impact Australia. His podcast, Demographics Decoded, explores the world through the demographic lens. Follow Simon on Twitter (X), Facebook, or LinkedIn.
