History against Bronco’s title if they fall in Melbourne
Brisbane were comeback kings in 2025 as they won the title after slipping to 11th after 13 rounds but history suggests going 0-3 to start the year is perilous.
Defending premiers Brisbane are walking a tightrope as they head to Melbourne desperate to avoid a dreaded 0-3 to start the season.
In the NRL era only North Queensland in 2015 have managed to bounce back from such a dire beginning to the season to win the premiership.
The Cowboys, Manly (2021) and St George Illawarra (2005) are the only three teams to have lost their three season openers and reached the top four. No side has won a competition from outside the top four since the NRL was born in 1998.
Even making the finals from 0-3 is a tough ask. Apart from the above-mentioned three occasions, only the Broncos (1999 and 2007), Sea Eagles (2009), Melbourne (2000), Cronulla (2015) and Warriors (2011) have recovered to make the play-offs after such a poor start.
One noted asset the Broncos had last year was their ability to come back to win games where they trailed, thanks largely to fullback Reece Walsh’s brilliance.
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They won once after trailing by 18 points, twice bounced back from 16-point deficits and on two occasions from 14 points behind before overturning a 10-point margin in the decider against the Storm.
Their season was also teetering at one point. After the round-13 loss to Manly they were 11th but won 11 of their next 13 to claim a seventh premiership.
“Everything’s pretty calm at the moment. It’s not a sprint, it’s a marathon,” Broncos five-eighth Ezra Mam said.
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“We’re just at the start of our season now, trying to build to where we want to get to.
“You’re not always going to start the way you want to finish.”
Brisbane’s left-edge defence had holes in it last week in the 40-32 loss to Parramatta and left centre Gehamat Shibasaki has been relegated to the reserves bench against the Storm as a result.
Winger Deine Mariner reverts to centre and will no doubt be given a working over by the Storm attack.
Brisbane’s hopes of a first win in Melbourne since 2016 were hampered further when captain Adam Reynolds withdrew on Tuesday night with a rib cartilage injury.
Veteran Ben Hunt moves from the bench to his preferred halfback position, where he played so well at the back end of last season when Reynolds was out with a hamstring complaint.
While history has some stark lessons it also provides hope for Brisbane.
Broncos legend Shane Webcke reflected on the 1999 season on Channel 7 this week, where as defending premiers they lost their opening five games and won one of their first 10.
Former coach Wayne Bennett stuck to the blueprint and didn’t panic. The players responded and made the first week of the finals.
“That fortified us and was a big reason why in 2000 we won another premiership,” Webcke said.
-with AAP
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