‘Supersized’ El Nino may become ‘off the charts’
The UN’s weather agency says El Niño is going “off the charts” and supersizing “before our eyes”, with the world facing extreme risks.
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
The World Meteorological Organisation said the weather phenomenon could be the strongest yet seen, fuelled by exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures.
“If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began. So literally off the charts,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in Geneva on Thursday (local time).
The WMO said its forecasts showed a near 100 per cent likelihood that El Nino would persist until February 2027.
It was the first time the WMO had expressed such a degree of certainty, it said.
“El Nino is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said.
El Nino is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years and tends to last up to 12 months.
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A very strong El Nino can significantly shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, and fuel extreme weather, like typhoons.
The weather pattern often brings dry conditions and drought to Australia, Indonesia and southern Africa, while the west coast of South America, East Africa and the southern United States frequently experience heavy rainfall. Europe tends to be less affected.
The Bureau of Meteorology this week released its spring long-range forecast for 2026, predicting above-average temperatures across much of Australia.
“While rainfall is likely to be above average across much of the western half of the country it is likely to be below average across parts of southern and eastern Australia,” it said.
The weather bureau also noted warmer temperatures were likely, following a warmer-than-average winter. It said the forecast increased the risk of early-season heat, particularly for southern Australia.
“El Niño is likely to strengthen and persist through spring and summer,” it said.
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“While El Niño is typically associated with reduced rainfall across parts of Australia, its strength does not always match its impacts on Australian rainfall. The influence of El Nino on rainfall also weakens during summer.”
Sample Pacific Ocean temperatures in this year’s El Nino — one of just four categorised in the top “very strong” bracket in records dating back to 1950 — were already more than two degrees above normal, the WMO said.
The event has already affected soft commodities in tropical areas, causing a severe food crisis across Central America’s “dry corridor”.
The WMO said El Nino would peak towards the end of this year.
Global average temperatures are often particularly high in the year following an El Nino. The year 2024, the hottest on record at around 1.6 degrees above pre-industrial levels, followed an El Nino.
“Normally after an El Nino event we tend to see a pulse in the global temperatures — a temporary one,” Wilfran Moufouma Okia, the WMO’s chief of climate prediction services, said, referring to 2024.
“2027 has the potential to be the warmest on record.”
Saulo said the WMO was stepping up preparedness and early warning efforts.
“WMO is committed to working closely with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian system to provide the climate intelligence and insights needed to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water resources,” she said.
-with AAP
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