Queensland coast braces for potential cyclone but forecasters split on risk
The likelihood of a cyclone forming off the Queensland coast has been revised by the Bureau of Meteorology, as other agencies share their own predictions.
Weather forecasters are split over the likelihood of a cyclone developing over the Queensland coast this week.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology the tropical low, currently looming over the Coral Sea off Far North Queensland, has a 30 per cent chance of developing into a cyclone.
Earlier this week, the agency gave it a 25 per cent likelihood of developing into a cyclone by Thursday. That has since been sightly increased to 30 per cent by Thursday night.
According to the Bureau, tropical cyclones “can follow erratic paths and predicting their movement is complicated”.
“Scientific understanding of these complex weather systems is still developing,” the agency said.
“We are constantly researching and improving how we predict high-impact weather such as tropical cyclones … (and) our ability to predict cyclone movement has greatly improved over the past few decades.”
The forecast comes as social media weather pages are flooded with their own predictions over the likelihood of cyclone activity.
Taking to social media on Wednesday morning, Higgins Storm Chasing said the system has a “reasonable” chance of becoming a category 1 cyclone in the next 24-48 hours.
“A coastal crossing is very likely near Cairns along the North Tropical Coast during Friday with high confidence across global forecast models,” the group wrote.
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“This system will produce heavy rain, flash flooding and strong to locally damaging winds along the North Tropical Coast from tomorrow.”
Meanwhile, Weatherzone predicted the likelihood of cyclone formation over the Coral Sea to be about 40 per cent this week.
The Far North Queensland coast is already sodden from consistent heavy falls earlier this week.
More than 200 millimetres of rain fell in less than 24 hours – Abergowrie Bridge, north of Townsville, recorded 231mm between 9am on Sunday and 6am on Monday.
And the coastline is facing more wet days, with the wettest scenarios forecast by the Bureau of Meteorology revealing the potential a further 350mm could fall on the area before the weekend.
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