One Nation win grim warning for major party future after Farrer win
One Nation issues a warning after its historic victory in Farrer over the weekend – the seat vacated by former federal Liberal leader Sussan Ley after warring with the National Party. The Libs’ vote tanked.
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Pauline Hanson says One Nation’s next target is western Sydney after winning former Liberal leader Sussan Ley’s NSW seat in a historic byelection victory.
David Farley ended 77 years of Coalition rule in a thumping win on Saturday that marked the first time One Nation had claimed a federal lower house seat.
With at least 80 per cent of ballots counted, Farley had attracted more than 57 per cent of the two-candidate-preferred vote to comfortably beat Milthorpe.
Hanson and MP Barnaby Joyce have flagged ambition to add to their lower house total, including in suburban areas such as western Sydney.
Hanson said One Nation would target the ALP’s stronghold, which is home to many migrants, and unseat members of the Albanese government.
She claimed One Nation had performed well in migrant-heavy areas of Farrer, leading her to believe it was attracting immigrant votes.
“I’ve been out to Fairfield and other areas in Sydney, and support has grown there over the years, and people do want change there,” she told SkyNews.
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“A lot of migrants are very supportive of One Nation. There’s huge support there, because they say to me: ‘Pauline, we came here, we are Australians, and we don’t want this place to become like the place we left’.”
In contrast, Hanson believed the party’s main opposition was coming from “established white areas”, The Australian reports.
David Farley snapped 77 years of Coalition rule in Farrer to claim it for One Nation. Photo: AAP
Labor strategist turned pollster Kos Samaras said One Nation’s success in Farrer could be replicated in some outer suburban seats, not just regional ones.
“Seats like Lindsay [in Sydney’s west], I could see that seat could definitely become an interesting contest,” the RedBridge director said.
With the Nationals allowed to run in Farrer due to Ley vacating the seat after her ousting as party leader, the Liberals’ primary vote tanked to 12.4 per cent — down more than 30 percentage points.
Milthorpe secured the most votes in the regional centre of Albury, while Farley dominated outside that.
Samaras said the Liberals faced the prospect of being pushed completely out of urban seats and being reduced to a rump in the regions.
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“I would say that every regional electorate that the Nats and the Liberal Party hold is on the block,” he said.
“If you’re getting close to 40 per cent primary vote in Farrer, then it’s going to be a lot higher in inland electorates right across the country.”
Labor was less vulnerable to a similar reckoning, with Samaras pointing out Hanson’s approval rating was -57 with its voters.
“It doesn’t mean Labor doesn’t have a problem,” he said.
“It will lose maybe one or two seats to One Nation.
“Seats like Hunter … that will be a threat. But it is much easier for Labor to combat One Nation because they are the contrast.”
Election analyst Ben Raue suggested it was too early to gauge how much damage One Nation could do in suburban seats, noting the next federal election was some time away.
“Right now, if we were to have a federal election, One Nation would do quite well and win a bunch of seats,” he said.
“I don’t think this [byelection] tells us that they’re going to sweep the cities. They didn’t win Albury.”
With the Coalition tacking to the right to appease defectors to One Nation, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said Labor was the last party standing in the “sensible centre”.
Shadow treasurer Tim Wilson did not shut the door on the Coalition partnering with One Nation to form a minority government to defeat Labor at the next election.
-with AAP
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